However, some are still pinning their hopes on one model that offers a chance to stop the dramatic decline. This is the Confluence Floor Model, created by popular crypto market analyst @TheRealPlanC . BeInCrypto wrote about this model when it was first presented two months ago.
The Last Hope: Confluence Floor Model
The Confluence Floor Model is developed from three independent floor models that are based on on-chain indicators. According to PlanC, its historical effectiveness is much greater than the traditionally accepted 200-week moving average (200D SMA), which usually marked the area of the absolute bottom for BTC. It is worth noting that the 200D SMA is located today at $21,839.
So where does the Confluence Floor Model predict a possible bottom for Bitcoin? According to a tweet published today, the chart of the indicator reached $27,688 today. This means that the price of BTC near $28,000 at the press time is almost exactly in this area.
Below his chart, PlanC adds a comment : “To remind everyone this is a daily close floor model. I said many times that it could see intraday wicks below it. As far as if I believe in it still. It has never been broken, so until it is I feel it is useful and once it breaks then it is not.”
The historical effectiveness of the model
Despite the fact that the Confluence Floor Model itself was created recently, its historical effectiveness seems impressive. The author often points out that in the entire history of the Bitcoin price, no daily candle has closed below its red line.
According to the data and a recent tweet, the model points very well to the lows of previous bear markets and the March 2020 black swan crash:
Does #Bitcoin have another date with the lady in red? Or will she be stood up this time? #Crypto 2011 License.